Urban Overcrowding and Infectious Disease Spread in Harare: A Computational Social Medicine Approach to Global Health in Developing Nations
Robert Chirima
Abstract
Rapid urbanization and overpopulation in developing nations such as Zimbabwe have intensified health risks, particularly in overcrowded cities like Harare. Informal settlements, limited waste management infrastructure, and high human density create conditions conducive to the spread of infectious diseases. While these challenges are well recognized, few studies integrate computational modelling with social medicine frameworks to explore the complex interactions between population dynamics, environmental factors, and disease transmission. This study seeks to examine how overpopulation in Harare influences the spread of infectious diseases by applying computational methods that integrate environmental determinants and social medicine perspectives. The research employ a mixed computational approach combining: Geospatial Information Systems (GIS): to map population density, waste disposal sites, and healthcare accessibility in Harare with Agent-Based Modelling (ABM): to simulate disease transmission under varying population densities, sanitation conditions, and urban microclimates and Machine Learning Analysis: to identify predictive patterns between overcrowding indicators (e.g., informal housing density, air quality, waste management) and disease outbreaks (cholera, typhoid, tuberculosis). Findings are expected to demonstrate strong correlations between high-density settlements and increased disease spread, particularly in areas with poor sanitation and waste management. Computational simulations will likely reveal that modest improvements in waste management and housing density reduction can significantly decrease infection rates. By integrating computational modelling with social medicine, this study advances global health research on overpopulation and disease in developing nations. Results can inform policymakers in Zimbabwe and comparable contexts by providing evidence-based strategies for urban planning, waste management, and health interventions aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals.
